Initial Reaction to Powerset? Ho-Hum.
So last night’s SFBeta was bigger yet again (nicely done, Christian Perry) and the supposed highlight of the evening was the public unveiling of Powerset, the natural language search engine some say could challenge Google.
To be fair, I didn’t even get to see the actual presentation as the overflow crowd rushed into the one room in the venue where the demo took place. However, I did get to play with the “natural language” queries they had set up to compare their search results to Google after the central presentation was over.
My initial reaction is the same as Rafe Needelman’s: Overfunded. And I might add, overhyped. And ho-hum.
Perhaps I’m missing something, but is there anything really new here? Powerset’s engine is based on old technology from Xerox PARC and while it’s clear that they are improving the technology, natural language technology generally doesn’t work as well at scale. That natural language queries, in a zero sum game, are superior to Boolean search queries is not a surprise to anyone familiar with the technology (note: At In-Q-Tel, I led an investment in Inxight, which also licensed natural language technology from Xerox PARC). Getting natural language queries to work effectively on an Internet-scale is another story completely.
The demonstration proved that a natural language search engine beats a Boolean search engine at delivering results from a natural language query.
Please wait while I file that revelation under “No Shit, Sherlock”. That was (arguably) true about AskJeeves 5 years ago too.
Powerset’s demo was based on the index of Wikipedia, which is an index of about 2 million pages. If that’s the scale they can comfortably query, it’s safe to say that they are not anywhere near solving the scale problem which is their first and biggest limiting factor.
As has been noted elsewhere, Powerset is not lacking ambition nor confidence. They are doing the right thing by bringing on noted search technologists, but they have miles and miles and miles to go before they should start using themselves and Google in the same sentence. There are a lot of smart people involved in this project, so there’s plenty of time before rendering any sort of meaningful verdict, but as of now there appears to be a grand canyon-size gap between the substance and the hype.
It seems as though Powerset is missing some of the fundamental tenets of Google’s success in gaining traction, which was to focus on being deadly simple and deadly effective.
Another day, another Ad network acquisition: AOL scoops up TACODA
AOL made yet another ad network acquisition to go along with their purchase of AdTech. While the TACODA acquisition was likely modest in comparison to the other deals in the space (NYPost suggests $200M-$300M), it puts the total amount spent on acquisitions in this space in the last year over $10 billion from Microsoft, Yahoo, Google and AOL alone. This speaks to just how significant momentum is in online advertising.
On a related note, Jeremy Liew notes that it has never been better to be a targeted content site. Jeremy does a great job of walking through the issue in depth as he explains how targeted ad networks work with publishers and how behavorial targeting is a step up from any single vertical ad network. But this just begins to explain the big picture.
What hasn’t been made clear is where this is likely to go as ad serving technology improves over time. Between targeted content sites, behavioral targeting and social networks, or graphs, that have a lot of information about users, pretty soon advertisers are going to be able to serve their ads to the precise consumer they are looking to attract.
At some point, advertisers are going to be able to reach their target audience close to 100% of the time. At that point, the efficiency and ROI in online ad campaigns are going to far outweigh ad campaigns through other mediums compelling advertisers to spend most of their time, effort and money online.
The advertising industry is somewhere near $250 billion per year and yet there only $16 billion was spent on online advertising in 2006. Even though that market has increased its online ad spending by 30% over 3 consecutive years, I can see that growth being maintained or even accelerating as the technology improves.
Web 2.0’s Most Significant Accomplishment Yet: Impeachment?
At this point, the “I” word is no longer relegated to the fringes of a far left liberal movement. With more editorials from MSM sources calling for the “I” word adding to voices like Keith Olbermann and Cindy Sheehan, the calls for impeachment are quickly picking up steam. In the blogosphere, the debate has reached the point where the ultra-conservative fanatic Michelle Malkin concedes that the issue won’t go away.
And the time has come where impeachment is the prudent action for the country. The Bush Administration, according to the NY Times, is continuing to “expand its power beyond all legal justification” further insulating itself from Congressional checks-and-balances, the principles which merely form the basis for the Constitution.
A monarchy is defined as a form of government in which a single person is the head of state, or a “Decider” for the less verbose. More than a track record of unparalleled corruption or shocking incompetence or complete disregard for the law or the will of the constituency that theoretically elected him, it is the continued monarchical pursuit of unchecked power that cannot be tolerated.
Any member of Congress that does not actively oppose this is complicit to the systematic invalidation of the Constitution, and that’s a violation of the oath each of them took to defend the Constitution, not the President or a Political Party.
Think that’s hyperbole? Habeus Corpus down, Checks-and-Balances on deck.
Around the rest of the free world, impeachment proceedings would restore shaken confidence in the United States while serving as notice to all of the enraged Jihadists that we don’t all share Bush’s imperialistic view of the world. Domestically, impeachment proceedings could be a catalyst for change badly needed for a government that has been so paralyzed by partisan politics that it does not see impeachment as a realistic option, and it would serve to invigorate a populace that feels ignored and disaffected.
But if impeachment proceedings do begin, it will have come from the Internet, the “long tail”, rather than our “leaders” in Congress. You see, Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are staunchly against impeachment and continue to take the stance that they won’t even consider it. Last week, I gave Reid some credit for “finding his balls” when he put pressure on the Republicans, but it’s now clear that was just political theater with no intended follow up action. (John Conyers rumblings aside)
Pelosi and Reid are against impeachment because the Bush Administration’s corruption and incompetence is destroying the Republican party from within. Pelosi and Reid are content to watch the GOP further unravel and coast to a major victory for their political party in the 2008 elections. By doing nothing, they figure, they can’t lose.
Little do Pelosi and Reid know that they are blowing their big chance. As any successful leader knows, you always “play to win”, never “play not to lose”, and Pelosi and Reid are not to be confused with those who show leadership. (Where are the Democratic Presidential candidates on this while we’re on the topic of those that need to be called out?).
Unless a Democratic leader emerges and shows the leadership or the will to take on the great responsibility that will come with being the next President, the impeachment movement will likely only go as far as the power of the “long tail” of the Internet will take it. While a simple Google search shows a staggering and quickly growing 2.12 million results for “impeach bush”, no Web 2.0/social techniques have been applied to the effort. In fact, we still have an activist mother staging old fashioned marches and protests. What would happen if someone created a nifty little social networking or Facebook application to advance the cause? None of the these grassroots causes have effectively employed viral feedback to engage the disaffected and leveraged their collective outrage.
While our elected leaders on both sides of the aisle continue to fail the American people on an unprecedented scale, the Internet carries the impeachment torch. How far will it go before the politicians and MSM catch on to what the blogosphere already seems to know?
In the meantime, here’s a neat little video that catches the Bush Administration with their pants down. It’s pretty difficult to argue with this. (Hat tip: Informed Comment).
The Wonders of Internet Radio- A Pandora Plug
I’m here in my home office finishing up some stuff before the weekend starts and I am listening to a personalized radio station on Pandora. For those of you who aren’t familiar with the service, users can give Pandora the name of any band they like and Pandora will automatically create a radio station based on similar music according to descriptions in the Music Genome Project. Of course, you can continually refine the personalized station by adding other bands or giving positive/negative ratings to any song/band Pandora plays.
The idea is that Pandora can give you not only music you like, but also introduce you to music you don’t know about that you may like.
Just now, Pandora played a song that I haven’t heard in maybe a decade, Conquer Me by Blues Traveler, and man was it good to hear that tune again. When my car was broken into and my CD collection was stolen in the late 90’s in New Orleans, my collection of Blues Traveler CDs went out the door and was never replaced.
What a great song and a great band. I was really excited to hear that again. Kudos to Pandora for being a product that really delivers on its promise.
Feel Good, Inc.
This is almost a week old, but so good that I had to share it here. For anyone who knows the Gorillaz, Nick Anderson really nailed the Cheney part. Enjoy.
The State of Sports
The headlines in sports right now are:
Michael Vick indicted for running dog fighting rings
Barry Bonds home run record tainted by steroid scandal
FBI probes allegations that NBA referee bet on games
Not a good day in the sports world to be sure.
Knocked Up Star Seth Rogen tabbed for Action Hero Role
Entertainment news is not something that usually catches my interest, but the news that Knocked Up star Seth Rogen has been cast as The Green Hornet brings a smile to my face. Especially this part…
Rogen would play Brit Reid, millionaire publisher-turned-masked crime fighter — a role George Clooney, Mark Wahlberg and Jake Gyllenhaal flirted with in various stages of the project’s long gestation.
Why do I care that Seth Rogen is being considered amongst the usual male Hollywood heartthrobs? Because I have gotten at least 10 phone calls from women telling me how much Rogen’s character in Knocked Up reminded them of me.
I wasn’t sure how I felt about that, but now that Rogen is emerging as the new leading man and action hero, I think I’m warming up to the comparison.
Facebook’s First Acquisition Might End Up Being It’s Biggest Ever
It would be hyperbole to suggest that Facebook’s first acquistion, with many more likely to follow, will be its most important acquistion ever (although I’m not opposed to hyperbole in blog titles as I look to acquire blog traffic). But it’s easy to see how Facebook’s acquisiton of Parakey might end up being one of the key acquisitions of the “Web 2.0” era when it’s all said and done.
Even before this acquisition, Facebook had enough momentum that numerous pundits suggested that Facebook was worth $6 billion. After adding Parakey, Facebook’s strategy of a web platform operating system enabled by THE defacto social network becomes clear. Valleywag noted that this transaction adds “another billion” to Facebook’s value and Techcrunch rightly suggests Microsoft might be the target. And this from a 2 year old company with a 24 year old CEO.
And these weren’t your average successful technologists behind Parakey. These were guys who are already responsible for an Internet product used by 15% of all Internet Users, which is at least a 10X larger user base than Facebook has at the moment.
These are some mighty enormous shoes Facebook is looking to fill.
While I do think that Marc Zuckerberg is a pretty smart guy, me thinks that Jim Breyer and Peter Thiel and David Sze and Paul Madera (I’m sure I’m leaving others out) deserve more credit then they are getting. While I admit that I don’t know that much about Zuckerberg, this strategy is coming together with more vision and perspective than is likely from a 24 year old first time entrepreneur. (Marc Zuckerberg, if I am shortchanging you then please come to this blog and let me know. I’m willing to be put in my place).
Seth Godin on Community Managers
Seth Godin’s blog post references something I’ve been thinking about recently.
One of the really interesting things about the Web2.0 phenomenon is that it is cheaper and easier to start a company than ever before. How does that translate to human resources?
Obviously there is a CEO, the need for engineers/developers is a given, and in many cases a marketing person is a good idea but past that there is no hard requirement past those 2-6 key people. The next important hire past the group that gets a product to market, assuming the product gains traction, is a community manager.
The Community Manager is going to become important enough to become a VP-level position, because all Internet /Web2.0 companies will have some social or community component and keeping that community engaged will be a crucial function. But as Seth notes, what exactly makes a good community manager? Besides being a well-respected member of that community, what other attributes or qualifications are important? Anyone know of any college or grad school teaching this stuff?
Keith Olbermann’s Latest Special Comment
Keith Olbermann came out with another one of his blistering Special Comments last night. I have great admiration for Olbermann for having the cajones to speak out the way he does, because about a year or so ago when he started with these well articulated rants it was not as socially acceptable to ruthlessly blast the President as it has become now. And make no mistake, Olbermann was the first member of the mainstream media to articulate the national outrage.
A few of the Olbermann “Special Comments” have been epochal to say the least, starting with his recent call for Bush to resign and clearly highlighted by his blistering rebuke of Condoleeza Rice’s ignorance. Regarding his Special Comment on Rice, I’m not sure there has ever been a greater public…..”bitch slapping”, for lack of a better term, than what Olbermann did to Condoleeza Rice in that broadcast. Has anyone seen Rice make a public appearance since?
Last night’s special comment was clearly not one of Olbermann’s best, but he did continue to ratchet up the anger and spoke again of impeachment and that’s good enough for me. Any mainstream media acknowledgment of both the nation’s collective outrage and the obvious need to bring the “I” word back into play is a step in the right direction as far as I’m concerned.