My Wizards Prediction: Can I Take It Back?
Ok, Crucifictorius, I was wrong.
After seeing the Wizards atrocious opening night loss at Indiana, I’ve come to the realization that the Wizards aren’t likely to reach my prediction of 55 wins.
I don’t think I was wrong in my analysis of Ernie Grunfeld or the roster he put together. I honestly believe that this roster is set up to win 55 games in the Eastern Conference.
What I overlooked was the one unfortunate common denominator, Eddie Jordan. The Wizards will underachieve this year just as they did last year. Eddie Jordan still cannot manage his personnel and his players still show no discipline.
Eddie Jordan seems to be the poor-man’s Don Nelson and the anti-Greg Poppavich.
Ok, so when you go on the road and miss 13 free throws and 5 or 6 gimme-layups, you’ll probably lose in the NBA, but this was a game that a contending team wins every time. The Wizards continued their trend of playing down to their competition and losing games to teams missing their best players.
How does Andray Blatche only get 12 minutes? Ivan Carter’s reports from training camp had Blatche pegged as the “best player on the floor”. How does Eddie Jordan manage to go 48 minutes and never have Brendan Haywood and Andray Blatche on the floor at the same time? That combination was very very effective last season. Why does Eddie Jordan insist on playing small ball with defensively challenged lineups?
Jordan’s inability to understand team chemistry, the benefit of height to a defense and his refusal to allow his players to fit into defined roles is maddening. The way he rotates his players and uses his bench makes me wonder if he’s guessing at times. I assumed these problems would go away with Michael Ruffin and Jarvis Hayes. I was wrong.
I saw some defensive improvement, but nothing overwhelming. But why do the Wizards insist on taking such difficult shots? I know that Arenas, Butler and Jamison are among the best one-on-one players in the NBA, but aren’t they supposed to be running the vaunted Princeton offense which gets them good shots?
Hopefully, it was just a bad opening night, but I think I’ve seen that same story more than a few times before. Reign in your players, Eddie Jordan, before Ernie Grunfeld runs you out of town.
Thoughts on the Patriots/Colts Showdown
Now that we are at least a few days removed from having my 2007 football hopes and dreams crushed, I think I can provide some perspective on how good the Patriots are and talk about how I think this weekend’s big matchup with the Colts will turn out.
Going into last weekend’s Redskins/Patriots matchup, I was blown away that the Redskins were 17 point underdogs. Under Joe Gibbs’ calm, calculated demeanor is someone with a sizable ego and a will and a desire to be the best. Being a 17 point underdog drove him nuts. With the best secondary in football and a defense that had completely shut down some of the better passing attacks in the NFL this season, I’m sure Gibbs thought that he had a good chance to win that game.
I certainly didn’t expect the Redskins to win, but I expected them to make a good game of it. And Gibbs did have his team ready to play.
When Tom Brady pulled a “fake spike” and threw the ball to Randy Moss at the end of the first half, it was well covered. Moss caught it anyway. When Brady threw deep to Moss down the right sideline in the fourth quarter, Shawn Springs blanketed Moss, covering him about as well as you can cover a receiver. Moss caught it anyway. When Brady hit Wes Welker for a 2 yard touchdown on a quick out pattern, Welker was defended perfectly. Brady threw an even more perfect pass outside of the reach of the defense and Welker made a great catch anyway.
My takeaway from that game was not that the Redskins were that bad (although they did not play well), but the Patriots impressed me more than any football team I’ve ever seen. The schemes and gameplan were flawless and they execute like neurosurgeons. Should they play the way they did on Sunday, I do not think they can be beaten.
Which brings me to the Colts. The Colts are playing great football, even better than they were playing when they won the Super Bowl last season. Peyton Manning is a maestro and undoubtedly one of the top 5 quarterbacks to ever play the position if not the best. The defense finally looks like a fast, aggressive Tony Dungy defense that pressures opposing teams into mistakes. The Colts are the best team I’ve seen in the NFL in the last 5 years at least.
Except for the Patriots.
I think the Patriots will win by 17 points. I think they are that good. It’s hard to believe that as good as Manning is and as well as he’s playing that Tom Brady is playing that much better. What Brady is doing is playing at a level I did not think was possible.
I wondered if my judgment was clouded by my Redskins allegiance, but this analysis by Football Outsiders backs up my take. According to their statistical analysis, these are the best two teams of the recent era of NFL football and the Patriots are better by a wide margin. The hype for this game is truly warranted, but look for the unfathomable Patriots to win going away.
About My Bold Wizards Prediction
I’m still in shock and completely disheveled having watched my Redskins get taken behind the woodshed by the juggernaut Patriots led by Tom Brady and Bill Belichick so I haven’t had the heart to post anything football related. I did, however, want to respond to our friend Crucifictorius over at We Write Goode.
Crucifictorius put together a great Wizards/NBA preview post, but in it suggested that my prediction of 55 wins by the 2007 Washington Wizards was less than realistic and suggested that my prediction exists in a vaccum.
Point taken, and while this is certainly among the most aggressive Wizards predictions you’ll see out there, I still think I thought this through. He says that the Wizards won 41 games last season and while that’s true, I put no stock in what happened after it became clear that Arenas would miss the playoffs. The Wizards season ended that day and was turned into a trainwreck the minute Butler followed suit. (Eddie Jordan’s handling of the situation didn’t help).
The Wizards finished 2-10 and were no where near that bad with a full complement. In the first 70 games of the season the Wizards were 39-31, a 55% win percentage that would translate into 46 wins over a full 82 game schedule. And that still takes Jamison’s knee injury into the equation. So assuming relative health, I’m starting from a 46 win assumption.
Diehard Wizards fans know that Eddie Jordan’s odd obsession with using Jarvis Hayes at the 4 in crunch time was a huge handicap last season. Hayes’ pitiful shooting percentage on the offensive end and inability to get rebounds on the defensive end cost the Wizards 3 wins in my estimation. Those 3 wins bring us up to 49.
Michael Ruffin? Gilbert Arenas is arguably the best penetrating guard in the NBA and his ability to create shots for others in addition to himself is what routinely makes players around him better. But Michael Ruffin was is so bad offensively (Ruffin was 5-18 from the floor on the season and shot 36% from the free throw line) that teams didn’t need to bother guarding him. By using a lineup that allowed defenses to guard 4 guys instead of 5, Eddie Jordan significantly handicapped Arenas’ ability to penetrate and create for others. I think Ruffin’s absense is another 2-3 wins we don’t have to give away. 51-52.
And then there’s my boy Andray Blatche. Eddie Jordan, who has been terrible managing his personnel, finally seems comfortable with using Blatche in the regular rotation. Eddie Jordan gave Blatche over 20 minutes only 12 times last season and in those games Blatche averaged 7.5 points, 6.7 rebounds and 1.3 assists. If reports of Blatche’s newfound maturity are anywhere near accurate and we can expect improvement, look out for this guy.
Blatche might also be the team’s best defensive player. He’s the only guy who can guard Chris Bosh or Kevin Garnett and, combined with Brendan Haywood, gives the team two legitimate shot blockers in the lane. That makes Arenas and Butler that much more dangerous in passing lanes. I honestly think Blatche is worth at least 3 additional wins and that’s how I got to 55.
Is there an element of dementia symptomatic of a long term, delirious, frustrated fan of Lez Bullez in my prediction? Perhaps, but I think the ‘06-’07 Wizards underachieved even when healthy. Continued cohesion combined with a roster that doesn’t allow Eddie Jordan to play smallball makes me stick to my optimistic guns. As for other teams getting better…sure, but some teams will get worse.
55 wins.
Unbelievable Ending To A Division III Football Game
Crazy…
Must See TV: Tom Brady vs Sean Taylor
Tom Brady and his blistering start and historic pace are rightfully the talk of the league right now. And while Brady seems a runaway lock to win the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year, the Patriots are about to face a team that stands a chance at slowing them down, boasting the front runner for Defensive Player of the Year in Sean Taylor.
As we saw with Daunte Culpepper in Minnesota, quarterbacks look really good when they send Randy Moss long and just chuck it deep to him. Regardless of coverage. And with teams focusing so much of their attention on slowing Moss, favorable matchups emerge elsewhere on the field, opening up a myriad of options for an all-pro quarterback.
But this week, Moss may meet his match in Taylor. The Redskins have been playing Taylor deep against everyone and will not have to roll their coverages to guard against the deep ball to Moss. And if Brady throws jump balls, which last week resulted in 35 and 50 yard touchdowns, he might find himself with interception s instead. Sean Taylor has 5 interceptions in 6 games and has probably dropped 3 more that he should have caught.
I’m not going to predict a Redskins win, nor do I think that the Redskins banged-up offensive line will allow it score enough points to beat a Patriots team that appears to be the best team in at least the last decade. But the Redskins have the best secondary and back seven in football and have shut down prolific passing attacks already this season. The Tom Brady/Sean Taylor matchup should be intriguing. Don’t be surprised if this is a good football game.
Washington Wizards 2007 Prediction: Ernie Grunfeld Wins Executive of the Year
More than a few eyebrows were raised when ESPN’s John Hollinger came out with his prediction of 33 wins for the 2007 Washington Wizards. I think Hollinger is a great writer who knows a lot about basketball and most importantly, backs up his analysis with statistical support (a tactic I like to adhere to), but I think Hollinger may have bumped his head while coming up with that prediction.
It says here that, short of injuries, the Wizards will win over 55 games this season and GM Ernie Grunfeld wins Executive of the Year.
Conventional wisdom suggests that the Wizards didn’t make many moves this offseason while other teams in the Eastern Conference made big moves. The Wizards rivals in the Southeast Division brought in Rashard Lewis, Penny Hardaway (?), Jason Richardson and Al Horford while ESPN lists 1st round draft pick Nick Young as the Wizards’ biggest acquisition. To not see the bigger picture is to miss the genius that is Ernie Grunfeld.
Here is why the Wizards will be a much better team in 2007, even if their defense doesn’t improve dramatically:
The Wizards are already a 50 win team: Since Caron Butler entered the starting lineup in game 25 of the ‘05-’06 through when Jamison got hurt in the ‘06-’07 season (the end of the healthy portion of the season for the Big 3), the Wizards were 60-39. That’s slightly over 60%, which over the course of 82 games translates to 49 wins. Health alone suggests that the Big 3 are a 50 win team.
The Big 3 Might Become the Big 4: OK, it will take a lot for any player to break into the elite cadre that is Arenas, Butler and Jamison, but I think third year wonderkid Andray Blatche might just do it. Grunfeld’s best move of the summer was somehow working Blatche’s restricted status to scare off potential bidders, as no one offered Blatche a contract. After Blatche made the mistake of soliciting prostitution and the market had dried up, Blatche was really up a creek and had to apologize and accept a 5 year, $15 million dollar contract.
What a freakin bargain. Blatche has the most interesting skillset of any 6′11”/7′0” player in the NBA outside of Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Garnett or Kevin Durant. While Blatche does not have Dirk’s jumper or Garnett’s toughness, he’s a better passer than both and has that special feel for the game that Kevin Durant seems to have. NBA franchise’s will regret not taking a flyer on this kid who appears to have realized that realizing your NBA potential is a much better idea than chasing hookers on the streets of DC.
If Blatche realizes his potential, he could very well be the 4th star player in Washington. And a versatile big man who can block shots, rebound, guard Kevin Garnett 4 times per year and run the floor is a frighteningly perfect fit next to Arenas, Butler and Jamison.
Addition By Subtraction: Coach Eddie Jordan had a very strange affection for 2 players who are no longer on the Wizards roster: Michael Ruffin and Jarvis Hayes. Both players gave great effort but were terrible, and their statistics backed up that assessment. According to 82games.com, both players had horrific +/- ratings, yet Eddie Jordan would frequently play those them at the 4 and 5 in a small ball lineup during crunch time. This drove fans crazy as the lineup could neither score (since Ruffin didn’t play offense at all and Hayes was a 41% shooter who didn’t contribute anything other than his poor shooting) nor rebound and predictably cost the team games.
Ernie Grunfeld knew that he couldn’t interfere with Eddie Jordan’s in-game decisions, so he simply removed those players from the roster. Now Eddie Jordan won’t be tempted to go to his old favorites. Addition by subtraction.
A Rookie Will Contribute, But Not the One You Think: There’s plenty of excitement surrounding the athletic, talented and loquacious Nick Young, the exciting rookie from USC. But Young will need time to develop into an NBA player, while second round pick Dominic McGuire from Fresno State looks NBA ready right now. How this guy slipped into the second round I’m not sure, but it sure looks like he is this year’s Paul Milsap.
Milsap slipped to the second round because he was a “tweener”, a guy who was too small to be a power forward and not athletic enough to be a small forward. He wasn’t great at any specific skill but as it turned out, he was good at everything. He doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective and has a great floor game that translated well to the NBA.
McGuire appears to be the same player. He doesn’t need the ball in his hands to contribute, but he plays defense, rebounds, blocks shots at an absurd clip for a 6′8” player and can run the floor and finish. He’s an improved jumpshot away from being Josh Howard. Think this guy won’t fit in well with the Wizards?
Another second round gem for Ernie Grunfeld.
How good is Grunfeld at evaluating talent? According to this article at DraftExpress, 70% of second round picks don’t last 5 years in the NBA and many never make a roster. In Blatche and McGuire, Grunfeld has drafted two guys in the past 3 years who look to be at a minimum, solid starters, a status that DraftExpress notes is only reached by 10% of second round picks. Blatche has a very high ceiling and McGuire may have star potential as well, and the article notes that 3% of second round picks become stars.
My hat is off to you Ernie Grunfeld. Prediction: Wizards win 55 games and the Southeastern Division.
Dolphins Nightmare Season Gets Worse
Having to see Trent Green taken off the field unconscious and on a stretcher, likely ending his career, was the lowest point for the 0-7 Miami Dolphins this season. One would think it couldn’t get worse.
Amongst all the disappointment, the lone brightspot this season had been running back Ronnie Brown. Brown was becoming the east coast version of Ladanian Tomlinson, as new head coach Cam Cameron had hoped.
One MRI later, Brown is done for the season and the Dolphins are officially in danger of going winless in 2007.
How To Save The Minnesota Vikings Season Right Now
The 2007 Minnesota Vikings have been something of focus here at Misunderestimated Again so far this season. I’m not entirely sure why given that I follow the entire NFL, but I think it has something to do with not being able to turn away from watching a train wreck. I’ve seen this train wreck coming for about a year now, and I’ve blogged about Brad Childress’ mishandling of quarterbacks here and his running backs here. After watching this unfold, I just can’t look away right before impact.
By now, it should be clear that Brad Childress resembles George Bush in that he mixes a dangerous combination of arrogance, incompetence with the stubborn refusal to acknowledge the clear reality of a situation. And like Bush, Childress has no one to blame but himself. (hat tip edit: just saw that Suddenly South has made the exact same comparison)
Just how bad has Brad Childress been? Consider the following….
The oldest axiom and the surest path to winning in the NFL is to be able to run the ball and stop the other team from running the ball. A team that can effectively accomplish both of those goals can force the opposition into less than favorable situations on both offense and defense while controlling the tempo of a game.
The Minnesota Vikings not only have the top rushing offense in the NFL, but boast the #4 ranked rushing defense. To boot, the other 9 teams with the most rushing yards per game have a collective won-loss record of 39-15. The other 9 teams with top ranked rushing defenses a collective 41-18.
While Adrian Peterson has caught everyone’s attention (uh, except Brad Childress), it’s worth noting that every running back that has run behind the Vikings talented offensive line since the beginning of last season has had considerable success:
Chester Taylor: 346 carries, 1404 yards, 4.0 ypc
Adrian Peterson: 108, 670, 6.2
Mewelde Moore: 34, 202, 5.9
Artose Pinner: 43, 190, 4.4
Ciatrick Fason: 18, 99, 5.5
So with every running back that’s been employed by the Vikings going off, the defensive line shutting down opposing rushing attacks in record setting fashion, how have the Vikings lost 12 of their last 16 games?
Ironically, it’s Chester Taylor, the only running back NOT putting up gaudy numbers behind this offensive line, who remains the apple of Childress’ eye. And for the sake of guys like Pat/Kevin Williams, Antoine Winfield, Steve Hutchinson, it’s time to stop the insanity and fire Brad Childress.
He’s fundamentally flawed as a head coach in more ways than one and is quickly losing his team. While it almost never makes sense to make an in season coaching change, this is one situation where it’s actually a good idea. This team has the ground game and defense to make the playoffs in the NFC this season. Here’s how I would do it:
1) Fire Brad Childress, hire Marty Schottenheimer: Has any team ever been more suited to Martyball than the 2007 Vikings? In 2000, Marty got rid of Jeff George 3 games into the season and finished 8-3 behind the unspectacular Tony Banks and a rushing attack headed by Stephen Davis. He’d be inheriting a much better situation on both sides of the ball and I bet he could get the Vikings to 8-8. He’d have to keep the existing west coast offense in place, but I think he’d love to coach a team featuring Adrian Peterson and a very good defense.
2) Run the ball 50 times per game. Marty is a smart coach and knows how to play to his team’s strengths (unlike Childress who seems to be unable to identify what his team’s strengths are much less how to best use them). Take the 2006 Saints model and make Adrian Peterson the Deuce McAllister and Mewelde Moore the Reggie Bush. Add another 10 touches per game for Chester Taylor and the Vikings, with their talented offensive line and deep running back corps would easily wear down opponents. When you average 5.5 yards per carry as a team, you don’t need to pass too much. Heck, you shouldn’t even need 3rd down.
3) End the Tarvaris Jackson experiment: I feel bad for Jackson, who is simply not ready for what he’s been asked to do and probably never will be. It’s not his fault that Childress actually said, out loud, that Tarvaris Jackson was ahead of Donovan McNabb at similar points in their careers.
“I’ve said it before, and it’s no slam at Don (McNabb), but I’ve said that I thought this kid is further in terms of our system than Don was after one year.
Wow. If there’s weren’t already enough documented examples of incompetence….
Six games into Jackson’s second season, he has compiled a quarterback rating of 48.7, which is a mere 30 points below McNabb’s quarterback rating in his second season and 1.3 points below the career quarterback rating of Ryan Leaf.
The Vikings have no other young prospect to turn to nor a reliable veteran option other than Kelly Holcomb, who has been with the team for about 6 weeks. The Vikings should bring in Shaun King for a tryout(who has 2 years in the WCO and has taken a team to the playoffs twice) and, if signed, let King and Holcomb battle it out over the course of the season. I think King just needs a second chance and the Vikings need to find that forgotten-about quarterback who just needs a second chance.
With steady-enough veterans King and Holcomb handing the ball off 50 times per game and relying on a stout defense, Martyball could be back more quickly than anyone realizes.
Sean Taylor Pushing For Defensive Player of the Year
The Redskins should be kicking themselves right now. While they are sitting at 3-2, they are 2 bizarre second half meltdowns against good football teams away from being 5-0. In a weak NFC, the Redskins are certainly a contender.
The Redskins return to contention starts with the play of Gregg Williams’ defense, which has shut down the top 2 passing attacks in the NFL in the past two weeks. After holding the Detroit Lions to 3 points, the Redskins only gave up 10 points to Green Bay’s offense. On the whole, the Redskins are only giving up 13.8 points per game and opposing quarterbacks have a league-low 62.7 QB rating.
While there is plenty of credit to go around, no one person is more responsible for the turnaround then safety Sean Taylor. Elite cornerbacks like Deion Sanders or Champ Bailey who were good enough to shut down an entire side of the field have been labeled “shutdown cornerbacks. Taylor is becoming the NFL’s first “shutdown safety”. In Gregg Williams’ defense, Taylor plays centerfield and has the speed to cover both sides of the field at once.
“Sean Taylor covers as much range as any guy in the league,” Favre said. “He’s starting to play like they expect him to play. He made some great plays today and also left a few out there. Early in the game [on a dropped interception attempt], he maybe could have scored a touchdown.”
Even more impressive than his speed is his size and reputation as one of the hardest hitters in the NFL. Taylor is as big as a linebacker and as fast as a cornerback and when he hits players, they go down.
The sky is the limit for how good Sean Taylor can become, and the Redskins defense will make them players in a watered down NFC.
Brad Childress Knows Even Less About Running Backs
We’ve previously blogged about the fact that every move Brad Childress has made at quarterback has been completely boneheaded, so when we say that Childress might know even less about running backs than he does about quarterbacks, it’s really saying something.
One of the biggest stories to emerge from this weekend’s slate of NFL games was Viking rookie Adrian Peterson’s breakout performance against the Bears. Peterson finished with a stunning 224 yards and 3 TDs rushing leading the Vikings to a win in Chicago.
Peterson probably would have broken the NFL single game rushing record had Brad Childress made Peterson the focal point of the Vikings rushing attack. However, according to Childress Adrian Peterson is still the backup to Chester Taylor.
No, seriously.
By now it should be clear to anyone who’s ever seen more than 1 football game in their life that Adrian Peterson is the best running back in Minnesota. Certainly the best back in the NFC North and probably the best running back in the NFC. JJ Cooper of Fanhouse calls Peterson “Purple Jesus” And most people will look at Peterson’s 224 yards and assume that Peterson is by now the focal point of the Minnesota Vikings rushing attack and offense.
But that wouldn’t be the case.
Childress gave Chester Taylor 2 more carries than Peterson on Sunday, with which Taylor managed a pedestrian 83 yards on 22 carries. Taylor averaged 3.7 yards per carry playing behind an offensive line that was blowing holes wide open. Holes big enough to allow Adrian Peterson to average 11.2 yards per carry on 20 carries.
While it might make some sense to suggest that Childress would be wise to guard against wearing Peterson down, his incomprehensible decision to make this franchise player return kickoffs invalidates that theory.
And worse yet, Brad Childress really believes that Taylor is somehow comparable to Peterson. When beat writers first started asking Childress about the division of labor at running back after the Vikings last loss against Green Bay, Childress responded:
”I think you’re mindful of that when you have a two running back attack, that you’re not going to use somebody all the way throughout. And that’s the great thing about having two guys that you feel equally good about and equally explosive about. I think Chester ripped off a 35-yard run yesterday as well [actually 37 yards]. You do that changeup and it benefits both people and it benefits our football team.”
And again in talking about Peterson after the Bears game, Childress once again referred to Peterson as not “Purple Jesus” but Chester Taylor’s backup.
“Good timing on (Peterson returning the final kickoff). It counts as a touch. I mentioned that to (Peterson and Taylor) last night. Every time he gets his hands on it, it counts as a touch. The backup tailback is always the guy that touches the ball on punt returns and kickoff returns. He has an aptitude to be able to return kickoffs.”
Huh?
Childress has maintained that Taylor is his starter and backed up that claim by giving Taylor more carries than Peterson, a gameplan which requires a mind-boggling degree of stupidity.
What’s worse, I’m pretty sure that Chester Taylor isn’t even the Vikings second best running back. Now that we’ve established that Brad Childress has a tendency to make horrific personnel decisions, is it at least possible that the wildly underrated Mewelde Moore might be better than Taylor?
Taylor is certainly a good NFL running back. Not very good or great, but good as his career 4.3 yards per carry average indicate. He’s tough, physical and can break a few tackles but does not have the lateral quickness or speed to be a front line NFL running back.
Moore, on the other hand, remains one of the most underrated players in the NFL. Having seen Moore extensively at Tulane, I firmly believe that Moore is a carbon copy of Brian Westbrook…and not a poor man’s version either. The real deal. While the knock against Moore seems to be that he’s not big or tough enough to be more than a 3rd down back, I seem to recall a the same labels being applied to Westbrook as well as Tiki Barber and Reggie Bush. And a quick look at Moore’s career stats clearly shows that he could very well be on par with those elite backs.
Mewelde Moore: 254 carries, 1243 yards, 4.9 ypc, 116 receptions, 1093 yards, 9.4 ypr
Tiki Barber: 2217 carries, 10,449 yards, 4.7 ypc, 586 receptions, 5183 yards, 8.8 ypr
Brian Westbrook: 807 carries, 3863 yards, 4.8 ypc, 282 receptions, 2695 yards, 9.6 ypr
Reggie Bush: 224 carries, 809 yards, 3.6 ypc, 119 receptions, 908 yards, 7.6 ypr
If you compare Moore to Barber or Westbrook going into their respective 4th seasons, Moore’s numbers greatly outpace the other two at the same stages of their careers. More striking is comparing Moore to Reggie Bush, another versatile run/pass threat.
Moore: 370 career touches for 2336 yards, 6.3 yards per touch
Bush: 343 career touches for 1717 yards, 5.0 yards per touch
And try this fact on for size. Moore has been given 20 touches 7 times in his career and he’s averaging 139 yards per game from scrimmage and the Vikings are 6-1 in those games. Since Moore as drafted in 2004, in games he’s had less than 20 touches the Vikings are 19-27.
It’s probably important to put 139 yards per game in perspective. When Marshall Faulk set the single season record for yards from scrimmage with 2429 yards in 1999, that was an average of 151 yards per game. Clearly, last season Brad Childress had no use for a back who had averaged 139 yards as a starter.
To add to the insanity, Childress has Moore inactive on Sundays in favor of a 3rd fullback, then turns around and in the course of negotiations tries to assert that Moore is worth a 3rd round draft pick. 3rd round draft picks are expected to be starters, not guys who don’t suit up on Sunday.
If Moore is traded to Tampa Bay, which would be the smart move for both sides, Tampa would instantly get an upgrade for their running game and an ideal back to pair with the crafty Jeff Garcia in Jon Gruden’s offense. Moore has flown under the radar thanks to Brad Childress, but it should be abundantly clear now that Childress’ judgment is to be taken with heaping amounts of salt.
Last season when an even split of carries between Moore and Taylor made complete sense, Childress wore Taylor out while giving Moore a measly 24 carries on the season. That’s less than 2 per game. Now that it’s clear that there is only 1 running back of note in Minnesota, Childress goes to a split that is mostly even. Par for the course.
So what’s worse? Starting your 3rd best running back over a potential hall of famer or going oh-fer-six on quarterback moves when your area of expertise is supposed to be quarterbacks. The fact that this issue can be legitimately debated is a tragedy for Viking fans who have the defense and running game to play for championships.