Why Wizards Fans Should Be Thrilled With the 2009 Draft
I had plans to bring the blog back, or a Posterous version anyway, and have a few blog posts in process, but I could not help but put something out there regarding Ernie Grunfeld and The Wizards big move this week.
Now that social media is really arriving, fan reactions to the NBA Draft are aplenty around the Interwebs and as a Wizards fan, I have been surprised to find that most Wizards fans are not merely unhappy, but borderline irate at the Wizards haul given their draft position and expiring contracts.
As is well known by now, the Wizards shipped the 5th pick in the draft along with Etan Thomas, Darius Songaila and Oleiksey Pecherov to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Mike Miller and Randy Foye.
Wizards fans are looking at the alternatives, which appear to be Ricky Rubio and DeJuan Blair, Vince Carter or Richard Jefferson and thinking that the Wizards ended up with the worst of the options. That analysis is shortsighted.
For starters, the negative fan reaction to 2 unknowns in the draft is simply silly. The Wizards are an NBA team looking to get older, not younger, and fans are bemoaning passing on an 18 year-old, 180 lb guard and an undersized PF with very serious knee issues. Even if both pan out as NBA players, neither would benefit the Wizards in the current scheme of things. For better or worse (and I think it is not only better, but great), the Wizards are constructed from the ground up around a ball-dominant Gilbert Arenas, which makes Ricky Rubio a bad fit as long as Arenas is in town. By the time Rubio would be ready for primetime, the Wizards would have a completely different roster anyway.
And the consternation about Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter is also misplaced. In the NBA, a players contract situation is almost relevant as his talent level, and both players are under contract for more than $15M through 2010. While Mike Miller and Randy Foye will make less combined than either player in 2009, both have contracts that expire at the end of the 2009 season. So not only did Grunfeld get 2 contributors for less than the cost of 1, but the Wizards will have significant financial flexibility at the 2009 trade deadline (and another expiring contract), when teams will be looking to trade serious talent in order to open up cap room. So neither the VC nor RJ acquisitions would have made sense from a financial perspective.
The financial flexibility will allow the Wizards to test the Miller/Foye fit to see who will be worth resigning and comfortably resign Haywood, whom fans are dramatically underrating. And next offseason will be the best buyers market since the onset of NBA free agency with lots of talent and a bad economy keeping prices down.
But fans seem to be overlooking how well Miller and Foye fit with the Wizards roster as currently constructed. Sure there is a glut at the 1/2/3, but that’s no big deal. First, assume that Mike James will have his butt firmly planted on the bench. If Deshawn Stevenson isn’t healthy, he will have a comfortable seat next to James and Jarvaris Crittenton is still a project who will not crack the rotation.
We know that Arenas and Butler will play ~ 35 minutes per game each. That leaves about 75 minutes per game at the 1/2/3 to split between Nick Young, Mike Miller, Randy Foye and perhaps Stevenson. And Young, Miller and Foye are all versatile enough to play at least 2 of those spots. And Dom McGuire is still in the picture for playing time at the 3 (and maybe a little 4 in a small lineup).
Foye and Miller are both excellent spot up shooters and will make defenses pay for collapsing on Arenas…or Butler or Jamison for that matter. Foye and Miller have been passable #1 and #2 options on NBA teams before, and will be exceptional when they are asked to be 4th/5th/6th options. These guys are legitimate threats to score 15+ ppg on any given night….what other NBA team has that kind of firepower? Maybe the Denver Nuggets and they sure fancy themselves contenders.
While some additional front court depth would be nice, Brendan Haywood and Jamison are likely to get big minutes at the 4/5 and Blatche, if he steps up, fits in nicely as the first big off the bench. Depending on how quickly he progresses, McGee will be able to provide a few minutes of shot blocking and rebounding when needed. Neither Blair nor anyone available on the free agent market was likely to change this rotation. Saunders only goes about 8 deep in his regular rotation anyway.
I see a team that, assuming relative health, wins at least 53 games and has the flexibility and ammunition to make a big move. Why 53+ wins? Here are 2 reasons…
1) Flip Saunders averages 49 wins per season over his coaching career. Has he ever had a team this deep or talented? Probably not. If you want to argue that his Pistons teams were more talented…fine, but Saunders averaged 59 wins in his 3 years in Detroit.
2) The Wizards were already a 48 win team….in 2006. Fans seem to lose sight of how hard hit the Wizards have been by injuries. The Wizards have only started Arenas/Butler/Jamison 118 games together (I am discounting the 10 or so games in the past 2 seasons as it was not a healthy Arenas). In those 118 games, the Wizards are 69-49, or a win % of 58%. 58% over the course of an 82 game schedule is 48 wins….and that was a team that got big minutes from Arvis Hayes, Songaila and Etan Thomas. The current Wizards roster is much improved and certainly at least 6 games better.
So I am looking at a ridiculously deep, athletic, talented team with plenty of youth, upside AND financial flexibility. Ernie Grunfeld, my hat is off to you.