Washington Wizards 2007 Prediction: Ernie Grunfeld Wins Executive of the Year

More than a few eyebrows were raised when ESPN’s John Hollinger came out with his prediction of 33 wins for the 2007 Washington Wizards. I think Hollinger is a great writer who knows a lot about basketball and most importantly, backs up his analysis with statistical support (a tactic I like to adhere to), but I think Hollinger may have bumped his head while coming up with that prediction.

It says here that, short of injuries, the Wizards will win over 55 games this season and GM Ernie Grunfeld wins Executive of the Year.

Conventional wisdom suggests that the Wizards didn’t make many moves this offseason while other teams in the Eastern Conference made big moves. The Wizards rivals in the Southeast Division brought in Rashard Lewis, Penny Hardaway (?), Jason Richardson and Al Horford while ESPN lists 1st round draft pick Nick Young as the Wizards’ biggest acquisition. To not see the bigger picture is to miss the genius that is Ernie Grunfeld.

Here is why the Wizards will be a much better team in 2007, even if their defense doesn’t improve dramatically:

The Wizards are already a 50 win team: Since Caron Butler entered the starting lineup in game 25 of the ‘05-’06 through when Jamison got hurt in the ‘06-’07 season (the end of the healthy portion of the season for the Big 3), the Wizards were 60-39. That’s slightly over 60%, which over the course of 82 games translates to 49 wins. Health alone suggests that the Big 3 are a 50 win team.

The Big 3 Might Become the Big 4: OK, it will take a lot for any player to break into the elite cadre that is Arenas, Butler and Jamison, but I think third year wonderkid Andray Blatche might just do it. Grunfeld’s best move of the summer was somehow working Blatche’s restricted status to scare off potential bidders, as no one offered Blatche a contract. After Blatche made the mistake of soliciting prostitution and the market had dried up, Blatche was really up a creek and had to apologize and accept a 5 year, $15 million dollar contract.

What a freakin bargain. Blatche has the most interesting skillset of any 6′11”/7′0” player in the NBA outside of Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Garnett or Kevin Durant. While Blatche does not have Dirk’s jumper or Garnett’s toughness, he’s a better passer than both and has that special feel for the game that Kevin Durant seems to have. NBA franchise’s will regret not taking a flyer on this kid who appears to have realized that realizing your NBA potential is a much better idea than chasing hookers on the streets of DC.

If Blatche realizes his potential, he could very well be the 4th star player in Washington. And a versatile big man who can block shots, rebound, guard Kevin Garnett 4 times per year and run the floor is a frighteningly perfect fit next to Arenas, Butler and Jamison.

Addition By Subtraction: Coach Eddie Jordan had a very strange affection for 2 players who are no longer on the Wizards roster: Michael Ruffin and Jarvis Hayes. Both players gave great effort but were terrible, and their statistics backed up that assessment. According to 82games.com, both players had horrific +/- ratings, yet Eddie Jordan would frequently play those them at the 4 and 5 in a small ball lineup during crunch time. This drove fans crazy as the lineup could neither score (since Ruffin didn’t play offense at all and Hayes was a 41% shooter who didn’t contribute anything other than his poor shooting) nor rebound and predictably cost the team games.

Ernie Grunfeld knew that he couldn’t interfere with Eddie Jordan’s in-game decisions, so he simply removed those players from the roster. Now Eddie Jordan won’t be tempted to go to his old favorites. Addition by subtraction.

A Rookie Will Contribute, But Not the One You Think: There’s plenty of excitement surrounding the athletic, talented and loquacious Nick Young, the exciting rookie from USC. But Young will need time to develop into an NBA player, while second round pick Dominic McGuire from Fresno State looks NBA ready right now. How this guy slipped into the second round I’m not sure, but it sure looks like he is this year’s Paul Milsap.

Milsap slipped to the second round because he was a “tweener”, a guy who was too small to be a power forward and not athletic enough to be a small forward. He wasn’t great at any specific skill but as it turned out, he was good at everything. He doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective and has a great floor game that translated well to the NBA.

McGuire appears to be the same player. He doesn’t need the ball in his hands to contribute, but he plays defense, rebounds, blocks shots at an absurd clip for a 6′8” player and can run the floor and finish. He’s an improved jumpshot away from being Josh Howard. Think this guy won’t fit in well with the Wizards?

Another second round gem for Ernie Grunfeld.

How good is Grunfeld at evaluating talent? According to this article at DraftExpress, 70% of second round picks don’t last 5 years in the NBA and many never make a roster. In Blatche and McGuire, Grunfeld has drafted two guys in the past 3 years who look to be at a minimum, solid starters, a status that DraftExpress notes is only reached by 10% of second round picks. Blatche has a very high ceiling and McGuire may have star potential as well, and the article notes that 3% of second round picks become stars.

My hat is off to you Ernie Grunfeld. Prediction: Wizards win 55 games and the Southeastern Division.