How The Pittsburgh Steelers Can Fix Their Running Game

With the 2009 NFL season about to kick-off, everyone wants to know if the Steelers can navigate all the usual challenges that usually prevent NFL teams from defending their Super Bowl titles.

The Pittsburgh Steelers return 20 of 22 starters, and in adding Trai Essex and Lawrence Timmons to the starting lineup, it’s possible that they have upgraded with the 2 new starters. The Steelers #1 ranked defense looks to be back with a vengence. With the return of punter Daniel Sepulveda and the addition of exciting return-man Stefan Logan the Steelers look to be much improved on special teams. And with young Head Coach Mike Tomlin at the helm, the focus looks like it’s there. In fact, I think Hardnosed over at Steeler Fury said it best when he observed “Tomlin’s personality is like a melding of Vince Lombardi, Yoda and John Shaft.”

But the Steelers offense underachieved badly in 2008, ranking 22rd overall in yardage and 20th in points, leaving plenty of room for improvement from the defending champions on that side of the ball. It’s fair to say that the Steelers and their dominant, #1 ranked defense won the title in spite of their offense, not because of it.

Ironically, the Steelers are loaded with talent on the offensive side of the ball. Ben Roethlisberger, with his 2 Super Bowl rings, a QB rating thanks ranks in the top 10 all-time, and the all-time record for most wins in his first 5 seasons (ahead of Dan Marino, John Elway, Otto Graham and Tom Brady), Big Ben looks like he’s already well on his way to the Hall of Fame and just entering his prime. With Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Heath Miller, there is plenty of talent in the passing game.

But the questions about the running game remain, where a running game featuring Willie Parker, Rashard Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore looks to improve. The franchise known for slobber-knocker, 3-yards-and-cloud-of dust, Jerome Bettis and Franco Harris-esque rushing attacks couldn’t run the ball in 2008. The Steelers rushing attack ranked 23rd overall in yardage, the Steelers 2nd lowest total since the NFL merger in 1970, managing a meager 3.7 yards per carry good for 29th in the league.

And the conventional wisdom all points to the same party line. As Chris Brown, author of “Smart Football” and a blogger at the New York Times Fifth Down blog wrote about the outlook for the 2009 Steelers run game:

…this year’s Steelers squad shouldn’t be as depleted by injury, and the run game should improve with a healthy Parker and a promising second-year player, Rashard Mendenhall.

The conventional wisdom here strikes me as missing the forrest for the trees, because to my eyes it sure looked like Willie Parker was the problem with the Steelers run game in 2008. A quick check of the facts seems to lend a lot of credence to that theory.

Willie Parker started 11 games for the Steelers in 2008. Parker averaged a mediocre 72 rushing yards per game at 3.8 yards per carry. In those 11 games, the Steelers averaged 20 points per game and 301 yards of total offense, numbers which would actually lower Pittsburgh’s already mediocre offensive ranks to 24th in yards and 26th in points.

And while that conventional wisdom says that injuries, a mediocre offensive line and suspect playcalling were the cause of Parker’s woes, those excuses fall by the wayside when you consider that Mewelde Moore found plenty of success playing with the same constraints.

Moore started 4 games last season and in those games averaged 90 rushing yards per game at a healthy 4.5 yards per carry, and because Moore is a threat out of the backfield he added another 20 yards per game receiving. These numbers are significant increases from Parker’s production across the board. And not surprisingly, the increased production at RB made the entire offense much more productive.

In Moore’s 4 starts, the Steelers offensive averages jumped to 327 yards per game and 24.5 points per game, numbers which would have given the Steelers offense numbers that ranked #17 in yards and #9 in points. (Moore’s 4 starts came against the New York Giants (5th overall), Indianapolis (11th), Cinncinnatti (12th) and Jacksonville (17th), no cupcakes in there).

If you subtract the rushing and offensive totals from those 2 games where Parker started but Moore got more than 25% of the carries (eliminating Moore’s more substantial impact on offensive numbers), Parker’s rushing yards per game rises a paltry 2 yards per game while the team offensive numbers fall off a cliff.

In the 9 games that Parker started and took the more than 75% of the team carries the Steelers averaged 18.4 points and 291 yards per game, numbers that would drop the Steelers offense to 25th in scoring and 27th in yards.

Despite fewer touches, Moore ended up with more yards from scrimmage, 1st downs, plays of 20 yards and touchdowns.

Willie Parker: 213 touches, 804 yards, 3.7 yards per touch, 29 1st downs, 4 plays 20+ yds, 5 TDs
Mewelde Moore: 180 touches, 908 yards, 5.0 yards per touch, 53 1st downs, 7 plays 20+ yds, 6 TDs

It seemed obvious at the time that Moore’s versatility and ability as a receiver out of the backfield made the Steelers staid offense one that became harder to defend. Then Colts DC Ron Meeks said about Moore:

“He definitely gives them a dimension they really needed”

Despite Moore’s obvious impact on the offense, Moore disappeared from the game plan down the stretch and in the playoffs, and no matter how poorly Parker performed Moore only saw time on 3rd downs.

This issue has flown under the radar, but Dutch at the well-regarded Steelers blog Post Game Heroes, recently brought the topic to light when he opined Mewelde Moore Might Be the Steelers Best RB.

Fast forward to the dawn of the 2009 season and all the stories are about Parker and Rashard Mendenhall with nary a mention of Moore. Mendenhall has been underwhelming to say the least, with the word “Bust” being bandied about. But being a 1st round draft pick, Mendenhall will get his chances regardless. What I found bizarre were Steelers OC Bruce Arians’ typically candid comments regarding Mendenhall and Moore:

“The job Mewelde Moore did for us last year was probably the most underappreciated job for us getting to the Super Bowl. He stepped in and hit some home runs. Those should be Rashard’s plays. That’s the role he should have.”

I’m confused why an offensive coordinator would acknowledge the contribution of a guy who “hit some home runs” and “[his contribution] in getting to the Super Bowl” then go on to give that role away so quickly and surely? Since the beginning of preseason, Arians and Tomlin have been clear that either Parker and Mendenhall would split carries or Parker would be “the guy”.

Moore’s career averages of 4.6 yards per carry and 9.1 yards per reception compare very favorably to other versatile RBs who have become key offensive players such as Tiki Barber, Brian Westbrook and Maurice Jones-Drew.

Barber, in particular, has a lot of similarities to Moore. given that 3 years into Barber’s career the Giants were so sure that Barber was only a 3rd down back that they used a 1st round draft pick on Ron Dayne. It wasn’t until Sean Payton became the Giants OC in 2000, when he said to then-Head Coach Jim Fassell:

Jim, every time Tiki gets his hands on the ball he’s gaining six or seven yards. We’ve got to get the ball to Tiki more.

As Fanhouse’s JJ Cooper noted, Moore has been extremely productive throughout his career when given the opportunity. Moore has 10 games with 15 or more carries and has averaged a gaudy 98.9 yards per game rushing at 5.0 yards per carry with 31.5 yards receiving per game.

Conversely, Willie Parker was, as recently as 2 years ago, an elite speed back…albeit one with limited vision. Parker turns 29 during the season and is rapidly approaching that age where RB production starts falling off a cliff. Parker’s yards per carry has dropped .3 yds each year for 4 straight years now and injuries are piling up so rationalizing an upward trend in production or durability at 29 seems a stretch.

Word from Tomlin and Arians is that Parker is not only the feature back but also likely to take goal-line carries, actually increasing his role from 2008. This seems shortsighted to say the least, given that the minimal likelihood of Parker being able to handle 250-300 carries without getting hurt. I can’t imagine too many franchises making such a poor between-the-tackles runner their goalline back, much less a back like Parker who would ideally be kept as fresh as possible. Parker’s reputation and status with the rabid fanbase seems to cloud objective thinking.

We know the Steelers defense will be an elite unit again in 2009 with even a precipitous fall meaning it’s still a top 5 unit. How quickly the Steelers figure out how to fix their running game will be the key to their return hopes. Bruce Arians has a seemingly hot-and-cold reputation around the league and one wonders if he would still have his job had the Steelers not won the Super Bowl. If Arians stops trying to fit a square peg in a round hole, the Steelers stand a very good chance of repeating.

For as much as “sabermetrics” and advanced statistical analysis are utilized in sports these days, it seems hard to figure how the Steelers can’t figure this out. It’s hard to rationalize a gameplan that includes either Willie Parker as a true, exclusive “feature back” or Mewelde Moore with fewer than 15 touches, but the Steelers seem intent on doing just that. If the Steelers continue basing their running game on past reputation and false theories rather than production the Steelers will have a very difficult time repeating.